Northern Illinois vs Toledo 11/1/2011

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AccuScore is forecasting a close game with Northern Illinois winning 44% of simulations, and Toledo 56% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. Northern Illinois commits fewer turnovers in 34% of simulations and they go on to win 56% when they take care of the ball. Toledo wins 69% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Chandler Harnish is averaging 64 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (31% chance) then he helps his team win 54%. Morgan Williams is averaging 80 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (41% chance) then he helps his team win 67%. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is TOL -7 --- Over/Under line is 67

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